District Enrollment Overview
Edina Public Schools has experienced steady enrollment growth over the past decade, recovering from a COVID-related dip in FY2021 to reach 8,711 students in FY2025. Projections hold enrollment flat at approximately 8,796 students from FY2026 through FY2030, reflecting stable grade-level cohort sizes across the district.
Projections are based on cohort survival analysis, which tracks the ratio of students progressing from one grade to the next. Kindergarten enrollment is assumed flat, while grade-to-grade progression ratios are derived from weighted 3-year and 5-year historical averages.
Enrollment by Grade Level
| Grade | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK | 58 | 55 | 57 | 54 | 58 | 48 | 63 | 75 | 86 | 80 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| KG | 514 | 565 | 539 | 567 | 577 | 592 | 611 | 608 | 580 | 582 | 580 | 580 | 580 | 580 | 580 |
| 1 | 588 | 579 | 626 | 587 | 593 | 584 | 622 | 642 | 621 | 608 | 605 | 605 | 605 | 605 | 605 |
| 2 | 634 | 612 | 595 | 621 | 594 | 592 | 626 | 642 | 640 | 641 | 621 | 621 | 621 | 621 | 621 |
| 3 | 615 | 653 | 615 | 605 | 628 | 588 | 606 | 643 | 646 | 664 | 657 | 657 | 657 | 657 | 657 |
| 4 | 632 | 626 | 667 | 630 | 612 | 622 | 611 | 617 | 637 | 658 | 670 | 670 | 670 | 670 | 670 |
| 5 | 664 | 635 | 631 | 662 | 652 | 598 | 653 | 632 | 622 | 654 | 673 | 673 | 673 | 673 | 673 |
| 6 | 679 | 679 | 668 | 657 | 681 | 658 | 623 | 667 | 655 | 669 | 689 | 689 | 689 | 689 | 689 |
| 7 | 693 | 682 | 686 | 657 | 638 | 681 | 667 | 628 | 680 | 663 | 678 | 678 | 678 | 678 | 678 |
| 8 | 677 | 684 | 690 | 680 | 655 | 631 | 685 | 676 | 646 | 695 | 679 | 679 | 679 | 679 | 679 |
| 9 | 689 | 670 | 672 | 662 | 700 | 661 | 665 | 716 | 694 | 697 | 733 | 733 | 733 | 733 | 733 |
| 10 | 678 | 688 | 676 | 681 | 657 | 687 | 650 | 672 | 699 | 710 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 |
| 11 | 675 | 668 | 690 | 653 | 655 | 650 | 655 | 666 | 661 | 706 | 712 | 712 | 712 | 712 | 712 |
| 12 | 633 | 683 | 653 | 696 | 667 | 649 | 626 | 695 | 675 | 684 | 729 | 729 | 729 | 729 | 729 |
| TOTAL | 8,429 | 8,479 | 8,464 | 8,412 | 8,365 | 8,242 | 8,364 | 8,580 | 8,541 | 8,711 | 8,796 | 8,796 | 8,796 | 8,796 | 8,796 |
Total Enrollment Over Time
The chart below illustrates the District's total enrollment from FY2016 through FY2030. Historical actuals are shown in dark green, with projections in lighter green. The COVID-19 pandemic produced a notable dip in FY2021, followed by a strong recovery that has carried enrollment beyond pre-pandemic levels.
Grade Progression Ratios
Grade progression ratios measure the proportion of students who advance from one grade level to the next year. A ratio above 1.00 indicates net growth (in-migration exceeding out-migration), while below 1.00 indicates net attrition. These ratios form the basis for projected enrollment figures.
| Transition | 16→17 | 17→18 | 18→19 | 19→20 | 20→21 | 21→22 | 22→23 | 23→24 | 24→25 | 3-Yr Avg | 5-Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K → 1 | 1.127 | 1.108 | 1.089 | 1.044 | 1.012 | 1.052 | 1.051 | 1.020 | 1.048 | 1.040 | 1.037 |
| 1 → 2 | 1.041 | 1.028 | 0.993 | 1.011 | 0.999 | 1.071 | 1.032 | 0.996 | 1.033 | 1.020 | 1.026 |
| 2 → 3 | 1.030 | 1.005 | 1.016 | 1.012 | 0.991 | 1.024 | 1.028 | 1.006 | 1.037 | 1.024 | 1.017 |
| 3 → 4 | 1.017 | 1.020 | 1.024 | 1.012 | 0.990 | 1.039 | 1.018 | 0.990 | 1.019 | 1.009 | 1.011 |
| 4 → 5 | 1.005 | 1.008 | 0.994 | 1.035 | 0.976 | 1.050 | 1.035 | 1.007 | 1.027 | 1.023 | 1.019 |
| 5 → 6 | 1.022 | 1.052 | 1.041 | 1.027 | 1.010 | 1.042 | 1.022 | 1.035 | 1.075 | 1.044 | 1.037 |
| 6 → 7 | 1.004 | 1.010 | 0.984 | 0.971 | 1.001 | 1.013 | 1.009 | 1.019 | 1.013 | 1.014 | 1.011 |
| 7 → 8 | 0.987 | 1.012 | 0.991 | 0.996 | 0.989 | 1.006 | 1.014 | 1.029 | 1.023 | 1.022 | 1.012 |
| 8 → 9 | 0.990 | 0.982 | 0.960 | 1.030 | 1.010 | 1.055 | 1.044 | 1.027 | 1.078 | 1.050 | 1.043 |
| 9 → 10 | 0.998 | 1.009 | 1.013 | 0.991 | 0.982 | 0.984 | 1.010 | 0.977 | 1.023 | 1.003 | 0.995 |
| 10 → 11 | 0.985 | 1.003 | 0.966 | 0.962 | 0.991 | 0.953 | 1.024 | 0.984 | 1.010 | 1.006 | 0.992 |
| 11 → 12 | 1.012 | 0.976 | 1.009 | 1.022 | 0.992 | 0.963 | 1.061 | 1.014 | 1.035 | 1.037 | 1.013 |
Notes & Assumptions
- Analysis assumes no caps on cohort sizes and projects purely based on cohort survival.
- Actual enrollment before the start of the 2025-2026 school year not yet factored in.
- Fiscal year 2025 enrollment data is from the August 11, 2025 "District ADM Summary". Figures are not yet final.